Predictive (plan-driven) approach
What you'll be able to do
Predictive = 'we know what we're building, so let's plan it carefully and execute the plan'.
- Plan-driven, scope/schedule/cost defined early.
- Right when requirements stable, deliverables physical, change costly.
- Heavy on baselines and formal change control.
Predictive (sometimes called 'waterfall' or 'plan-driven') is the approach where scope, schedule, and cost are determined in detail early in the life cycle and changes are formally controlled. Predictive favours up-front planning, clear baselines, and milestone-based progress measurement. It works best when requirements are stable, the team has solved similar problems before, and stakeholders prefer predictability over flexibility.
PMBOK 8e identifies when predictive is the right call: safety- or regulation-critical work (where signed-off requirements are non-negotiable), large up-front capital commitments (capital construction, factory build-outs), and contexts where the customer needs fixed-price/fixed-scope contracts. Predictive is not 'old-fashioned' — it's the right approach when the conditions match.
Watch out for the exam trap of treating predictive as inferior to adaptive. PMBOK is explicit that neither is universally better. Each is correct in its conditions; choosing wrong is the failure, not choosing predictive itself.
Key points
- Plan-driven, scope/schedule/cost defined early.
- Right when requirements stable, deliverables physical, change costly.
- Heavy on baselines and formal change control.
- Not inferior to adaptive — context-dependent.
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